About 1,600 people die every day in the UK for one reason or another. A similar figure applies in Italy and a much larger one in China. The coronavirus deaths, while distressing and shocking, are not so numerous as to require the civilised world to shut down transport and commerce, nor to surrender centuries-old liberties in an afternoon.
We are warned of supposedly devastating death rates. But at least one expert, John Ioannidis, is not so sure. He is Professor of Medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University in California. He says the data are utterly unreliable because so many cases are going unrecorded.
He warns: 'This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4 per cent rate from the World Health Organisation, cause horror and are meaningless.' In only one place -- aboard the cruise ship Diamond Princess -- has an entire closed community been available for study. And the death rate there -- just one per cent -- is distorted because so many of those aboard were elderly. The real rate, adjusted for a wide age range, could be as low as 0.05 per cent and as high as one per cent.
As Prof Ioannidis says: 'That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05 per cent is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It's like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.'

And I've been trying to explain this to everyone from day one.

Spread the word Mr TG!

Corona is a few months old and the deaths are increasing on a daily. Over 700 people died in Italy alone yesterday. This is going to increase exponentially. Let's come back to this thread in a few weeks, not even months', time.

On 2020-03-22 12:44:17 Seopesesa said:
Corona is a few months old and the deaths are increasing on a daily. Over 700 people died in Italy alone yesterday. This is going to increase exponentially. Let's come back to this thread in a few weeks, not even months', time.

Agree, it is always worth reading different opinions though

If the president announces a lockdown tonight it will have serious financial implications for us all.

My guess is that , hopefully, it will not be a total lockdown but further stringent measures will be announced.

On 2020-03-22 12:56:56 Ben Layden said:
If the president announces a lockdown tonight it will have serious financial implications for us all.

My guess is that , hopefully, it will not be a total lockdown but further stringent measures will be announced.

BL see my thread keeping the economy afloat

I am in agreement with Messrs. Hitchens and Ioannides.
While Italy and Iran appear to have higher mortality rates, the situation in China, where this is said to have started, has improved dramatically and is recovering. Why not seek their advice and see how they recovered, for starters ?
The elite 1% must be rubbing their hands in glee as the impending global economic meltdown gathers speed and a recession of magnaminous proportions unfolds.
PRS
Problem (virus)
Reaction (panic, lock down)
Solution (lock down, vaccine)
And the result ?
World vaccinated, vast majority impoverished, population control, small and medium business devastated and gobbled up by those huge, elite corporations, a cashless one world order with its one world currency.
The plan is working as the world scurries around looking for scraps and toilet paper.

On 2020-03-22 12:56:56 Ben Layden said:
If the president announces a lockdown tonight it will have serious financial implications for us all.

My guess is that , hopefully, it will not be a total lockdown but further stringent measures will be announced.

My thoughts exactly BL ... hope you are correct with the prediction.

Ive started watching this new, very timely, Netflix series called Pandemic, How to prevent a Outbreak. They say in 1918 the flu pandemic killed between 50 and 10p million people but we didn't even have air travel like we have now, we didn't have people traveling all over the world on a daily basis like we have now. The world's population was a "mere" 1.8 billion then, it is now 7.8 billion. We didn't have factory farms with thousands of pigs and thousands of chickens. So it could be hundreds of millions of people that would die from the next pandemic. They also show Bill Gates giving a speech where he says: "Epidemiologists show through their models that any respiratory-spread pathogen would kill more than 30 million people in less than a year. And there is a reasonable probability of that taking place."

Well that pandemic is now here, it is Covid-19.

On 2020-03-22 12:37:54 Lupe Luxe said:
And I've been trying to explain this to everyone from day one.

Spread the word Mr TG!

At Lupe Luxe, please watch the series Pandemic, How to prevent an outbreak on Netflix. This is not something to be swept under the carpet. Also look at the images of the coffins as well as the hospitals in Italy. This is no joke. It's also not just another flu, it is chronic pneumonia. The one patient (a black guy) in a US hospital described that his lungs felt like glass. If he lay still his breathing would go slower and he would eventually have stopped breathing, so they made him sit up and move which was so painful that he was certain he would die. He felt like rather lying still then to vomit his lungs out and go through that excruciating pain. In Italy they turn the patients around every 12 or 13 hours to take pressure off of the lungs. Numerous doctors and medical professionals wearing the correct protective gear and schooled in hygiene have died so far.

So please think before preaching to everyone that there is nothing to worry about. Tens of millions will die before we see the end of this and I'm afraid things are not looking good for SA with the minister of health saying that up to 70% of us will get it. That is 40 million people in SA alone.